Now we look forward, and I say that because the 3 teams I mentioned as potential upset candidates are all out of the tournament. I always think the first weekend is for the lower seeds and the upsets. The second weekend is when the higher seeds take over. I am one, and probably in the minority, who will not be rooting for Davidson, Western Kentucky, or Villanova this weekend. I want to see the marquee match ups now.
I don't wanna get too far ahead, but there are definitely some games that I'm looking forward to this weekend should they happen.
A couple thoughts on the games that are set right now.
WEST
* I think UCLA right now, although they may have been the least impressive #1 seed so far, probably has the easiest path to the Final Four. I know Western Kentucky is a nice team and they've won 2 games already, but they may have had an easy track to get to this point. Xavier is a step below the three other #3 seeds in the tournament and West Virginia, while they are from the best conference in the country, they may not be one of the elite teams. I would be surprised if there were another team besides UCLA in the Final Four representing the West. I said the same thing prior to the tournament starting also and that was based purely on draw.
-- Game I want to see: UCLA v West Virginia
-- Player that can single-handily lead his team to a Final Four: Joe Alexander, W. Va. After an average game against Arizona in the first round, he was excellent against Duke. He kept his team in the game in the first half while they were saddled with a little foul trouble. He can put a team on his back and lead them to another couple wins.
EAST
* North Carolina has been the most impressive team thus far in two games, but they may have the toughest path to the Final Four. Tennessee was probably the best #2 seed going into the tournament as they were in line for a #1 seed until the last day of the season and are now one of the two #2 seeds left in the field. Louisville is playing the best of all the #3 seeds still alive. Their dominance against Oklahoma on Sunday was very impressive and they have the depth and personnel to match up with Carolina. Washington St. is the one team left in the tourney whose style of play contrasts most with Carolina. In their previous game, they took one of the best scoring teams in the country, Notre Dame, and completely shut them down. Carolina is probably more balanced, more explosive, and better than Notre Dame, but it should still be fair warning of their defensive abilities. And Kyle Weaver is the type of player who could excel in March. Marcus Ginyard will have his hands full trying to contain him.
-- Game I want to see: Louisville v North Carolina. I would feel much more comfortable picking Louisville if the game were not being played in Charlotte. You would think that Carolina will have a semi home-court advantage. Otherwise I envision a classic contest on Saturday evening.-- Player who can be a difference maker (non obvious): Derrick Caracter, Louisville. This kid has been through a ton in his career dating back to his sophomore year in high school. He's been to a number of different high schools, gotten thrown off his college team a couple times, and struggled with his weight, but the one thing he has is talent. When he wants to score the ball, he can score it. If he plays to his ability, he could be a big factor against both Tennessee and Carolina. He gives them the ability to throw 4 post players, Padgett, Palacios, Clark, and him at any team.
MIDWEST
* I've been on Kansas all year. Stayed on them last week. And I have no reason to get off of them now. I think they got a bit fortunate that Villanova is their next opponent and that Georgetown got knocked out by Davidson. I think Villanova is a good team and Scottie Reynolds is a very good player, but they are a bit inconsistent and young and I think Kansas' experience, depth, and talent will help them prevail. Davidson is a nice story and everyone loves Stephen Curry and is getting to know him. In 3 NCAA tournament games in his career he has scored over 100 points. He truly is a great scorer but he is about to run into maybe the best "system defense" team in the country. Wisconsin may be the most underrated team in the country and I think they'll be able to handle Curry and Davidson, setting up a nice match up on Sunday.
-- Game I want to see: Wisconsin v Kansas
-- Best 1-on-1 match up: Michael Flowers, Wisco v Stephen Curry, Davidson. As I mentioned earlier, Curry has been an absolute stud in 3 tournament games in his career. He is a lethal shooter, like his father was. He can score in bunches. He brought his team back against a much better Georgetown team and he moves better than anyone I've seen without the ball. I think that is one thing that sets him apart from other good scorers, like Indiana's Eric Gordon. He works so hard to get himself open that it makes him truly difficult to cover. Flowers is the best defensive player in the Big Ten. He can play point guards or bigger forwards. He's done a great job this year on Gordon, Drew Neitzel from Michigan St., and Manny Harris from Michigan. He did a pretty good job of frustrating Bill Walker last weekend as well even though he was giving away a good deal of size to him. It should be interesting to see what he can do with Curry.
SOUTH
*Memphis survived last weekend against Mississippi St. Stanford used a last second shot from Brook Lopez to beat Marquette. Texas held off a gritty Miami team and Michigan St. was very impressive in beating a hot Pittsburgh team. Many people liked Pitt to make a deep run in the tournament, but Michigan St. ended those thoughts. Now they get #1 seed Memphis. Memphis has more talent and more athletes than Michigan St. If they can make jump shots they are going to be very tough for Michigan St. to beat. The Spartans can not afford for Drew Neitzel to have another poor game like he had against Temple in the first round. Tom Izzo has been known to get his teams ready for this time of year and beat some good teams at this point, but I don't know if he has the talent to do it this year. The other match up is very intriguing to me. Stanford has the Lopez twins, who are getting some much due credit. It's hard for any team to match up with two 7-footers and they can cause a lot of havoc on the defensive end of the floor as well. Texas' strength is their backcourt. They may have the best backcourt in the country with Augustin and Abrams. It could come down to whether Texas can handle the size of Stanford or whether Stanford's guards can handle the quickness of Texas' perimeter players.
-- Game I want to see: Texas v Stanford. I'd like to see these two teams meet because they are probably the most talented teams in the region and I think they match up the best. With that being said, I think Stanford will beat Texas because their size will be too much and I like their guards more than other people (more on that next)
-- Underrated player who will make a difference: Mitch Johnson, Stanford. Against Marquette's aggressive, quick guards, Johnson had 16 assists and only 1 turnover. If he can perform the same way against Texas and Memphis' pressure D, Stanford is going to be a tough out. Two 7-footers is nice to have and tough to match up with, but guard play still wins at this time of year, and Johnson is playing very well right now.
All four of my Final Four teams are still alive, but I will change one of them now. I'm putting Stanford in the Final Four over Texas now. I like what I've seen from them in two games. That means I have Louisville, Kansas, UCLA, and Stanford.
Let's enjoy a nice weekend of great college basketball.
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